The “renewal of old†policy has a huge impact on light trucks and other commercial vehicle markets.
Bus sales are also stimulated by the new policy.
"New trade" subsidies to rescue the market
Last week, the State Council decided to extend the subsidy scope and increase subsidies on the basis of the existing retirement subsidies for old cars, and this year the central government will increase the retirement subsidies for old cars from 1 billion yuan to 5 billion yuan. The effect of this policy measure is expected to be significantly better than the automobile-to-country policy, which will have a significant impact on the sales of light and medium trucks, as well as the sales of light and medium-sized passenger vehicles.
Experts in the industry explained that the difference between the “replacement of old for new†and the half of purchase tax is mainly aimed at the characteristics of the car market, and is mainly a policy adopted to stimulate sales of commercial vehicles. For Dongguan automakers, “new trade-in†will help stimulate sales of commercial vehicles, but it is difficult to enjoy discounts for vehicles under 1.6 liters.
opportunity
"Trade-for-new" promotes commercial vehicle sales
Since the beginning of this year, with the introduction of policies such as autos going to the countryside, halving the purchase tax, and plans for automobile revitalization, the sales of automobiles (mainly passenger cars) have gradually picked up in the first four months of this year. Compared with the gradual increase in the sales of passenger vehicles, commercial vehicle sales have not kept pace. Data show that in April this year, the number of vehicles launched by the national auto companies was 1,153,100, an increase of 24.98% year-on-year. The passenger car market demand exceeded expectations, with the number of companies starting to reach 831,000 vehicles, an increase of 37.37% year-on-year; commercial vehicles sold 322,100 vehicles, an increase of only 1.38% year-on-year. In the current economic environment, the difference between the increase in sales of commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles is too big. The government has introduced a “renewal of old†policy that is conducive to the promotion of commercial vehicle sales.
Relevant experts believe that the previous "car to the countryside" policy is only aimed at peasants to enjoy the relevant subsidies for car purchases, while urban residents and companies buying cars are excluded from the scope of benefits. The “renewal for old†policy applies to urban and urban customers and corporate customers. The licensing procedures for urban and urban customers and corporate customers are relatively complete. Taxes and fees are paid in a timely manner. Obstacles to vehicle scrapping and redemption procedures will be significantly less than rural customers. Therefore, urban and urban customers and corporate customers are more likely to realize redemption and enjoy vehicle scrapping subsidies. The actual implementation effect of this policy will be significantly better than that of automobile sales to commercial vehicles, and will be sold to commercial vehicle products. Have a positive effect.
Prior to the auto-to-country policy, the models that enjoyed scrapping subsidies and purchase price subsidies were confined to light-duty trucks (light-duty trucks were four-wheeled trucks with a total mass of more than 1.8 tons but less than or equal to 6 tons). It can only stimulate the sales of light trucks. The subsidy scope of “renewal of old for new ones†has been significantly expanded. Subsidies have been given to those medium-, light-, micro-duty trucks and some medium-size passenger vehicles that meet certain service age requirements, and are scrapped and redeployed for a certain number of years in advance. For the "yellow car" in advance scrapped and redemption of new cars, give subsidies. At the same time, it complies with the models stipulated in the "Scope and Standards for the Retirement of Old Automobile Discarded Subsidy Funds in 2009" announced by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce. (Note: The "yellow mark car" will be scrapped ahead of time and a new car will be redeemed. However, if the new car has already enjoyed a half-price vehicle purchase tax policy of 1.6 liters or less, it will no longer enjoy the old car replacement subsidy policy.)
The subsidy standard for “replacement from old to new†is: the amount of single subsidy for old cars that meets the conditions is, in principle, not higher than the amount of single vehicle purchase tax for the same type of vehicles. The specific standards are: 5,000 light trucks and 4,000 minivans. Yuan, mid-size passenger car 5,000 yuan, cars and other models 2000~6000 yuan. Experts believe that the trade-in policy will significantly promote the sales of medium-sized, light trucks, medium-sized and light-duty buses.
Trend
Commercial vehicle sales gradually come out of the trough
Every year from March to June, it is the peak season for commercial vehicle sales. However, in March and April of this year, commercial vehicles did not have such a good opportunity. On the contrary, sales volume fell by more than 20% year-on-year. "From January to April this year, the total sales volume of commercial vehicles has been a negative year-on-year growth, and the sales pressure of commercial vehicles has been very high." The head of a commercial vehicle dealership at Guanbu Road, Liaobu, told reporters that for some time, many commercial vehicle dealers Feeling difficult to sustain.
“We feel much better after entering May. We may have a clear product positioning. In March and May of this year, sales were maintained at about 120 units per month. Although there was a gap compared to the 150 units sold in the same period last year, Expect much better.†Chen Shuanglian, general manager of Dongguan Jiangling Motors, said in an interview. As the economy improves, consumers’ consumption of commercial vehicles will gradually increase. Judging from past experience, Dongguan's economy has been active, its material flow has increased, and its exports have grown. The demand for commercial vehicles has increased. Now, the real economy in Dongguan has been gradually warming up, and commercial vehicles will gradually pick up in the second half of the year. Commercial vehicle sales have already reached the lowest point.
"I think that trade-in has a stimulating effect on the sales of commercial vehicles, but it may have a greater role in the mainland market than in these coastal markets in Dongguan." Wu Dong, head of Dongguan Dongfu Dongfeng Xiaokang franchise store, said that the current price is between 30,000 and 50,000 yuan. The sales of pickup trucks have picked up, and their stores can sell more than 100 vehicles each month, which is a big increase compared to the downturn.
prediction
Low-end and mid-end commercial vehicles compete or intensify
On Saturday, Qingling Motors' 100P State Light Trucks went public in Dongguan Zhaoqing Motors at a price of RMB 86,000 and broke into the domestic mid-range light truck market. Just a week earlier, Great Wall Motor Fengjun Fortune was also officially listed, and the global version of the new high-end pickup truck Feng Jun family sold only 66,800 yuan. The reporter learned that commercial vehicles such as Futian and Jianghuai have also been listed on new light trucks this year. In the mid- to low-end commercial vehicles between 30,000 and 80,000 yuan, along with the introduction of the “new trade†policy, the future Competition may intensify.
"The sales of high-end trucks are limited after all, and with the implementation of the National Three Standards, the cost has increased and the prices have also increased a lot. Consumers prefer to choose low-end and mid-range trucks that are relatively cheaper," said Jianghuai Automobile Dongguan Junyu Motors. The person in charge said that in the recent period, the light truck with a price of 67,000 yuan was relatively easy to sell. For the newly-listed 100P, the person in charge of Dongguan Zhaoqing Automobile Co., Ltd. said that the price of this car is 25% lower than that of the original Guoerg model. This is also the hope that it can use it to seize the market share of mid-range commercial vehicles.
The current price of the 100P State III light truck is 40% lower than the price of the country's 100P in 2001, and 25% lower than the price of the 100P in the country in 2008. However, there has been a significant increase in fuel saving and environmental protection. The current commercial market in Dongguan, 80,000 yuan is the golden watershed of mid-range commercial vehicles, in the 60,000 to 80,000 mid-to-high-end light trucks, in addition to Qingling 100P, there are Jianghuai Shuai Ling II, Futian Ou Ma Ke, Dongfeng Zhi Star, Jiangling Kaiyun equivalent price models. With the introduction of the “new-for-new†subsidy, in order to compete for market share, many businesses will compete in terms of price, performance, etc. within the scope of the policy.
Dongguan, an export-oriented economy, will recover as the export recovers, and will resume as a downstream commercial vehicle sales. Experts pointed out that for some time in the future, the market's demand for commercial vehicles will be in the range of 50,000 to 80,000 trucks. Although high-end trucks are also in demand, they are mainly purchased by large logistics companies. Therefore, in the near future, low-end commercial vehicles will compete for the "new trade" cake.