In fact, officials' statements are objective and prudent, but they are somewhat conservative. According to the market situation known to reporters, the possibility of domestic potash fertilizer price increases in the later period is minimal, and the downward pressure is increasing.
First of all, international potash supply exceeds demand. Affected by the fervent price of potash fertilizer and lucrative profits from 2005 to 2008, major potash producers in Russia, Belarus, Canada, the United States, Israel, and Germany have all expanded their potash fertilizer capacity in varying degrees. According to the data released by the IFA, global potash supply in 2008 reached 35.544 million tons, and actual consumption was only 33.302 million tons, with a surplus of more than 2.2 million tons.
Second, shrinking demand has led to an increase in potash stocks. Affected by the international financial crisis, the price of international agricultural and sideline products has continued to fall since October last year, seriously dampening the enthusiasm of farmers for planting and reducing the demand for fertilizers in agriculture. This point has been reflected in the domestic and foreign nitrogen fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and compound fertilizers. However, due to the high monopoly of potash fertilizer, international giants and speculators have strong ability to control potash fertilizer prices, and their prices have not been deep-drawn. In particular, the major potash giants, due to the lack of real understanding of the Chinese market and farmers' affordability, mistakenly believe that by virtue of their monopoly status, they can completely control the price of potash fertilizers. Therefore, when China announced that it would reduce the import of potash fertilizer this year, they apparently shouted that they would have to compress their production capacity and implement limited production and guaranteed prices. However, in fact, under the temptation that the price of potash fertilizers will continue to operate at high prices and make lucrative profits, what they call limited production plans. Not implemented at all. However, the prices of agricultural and sideline products such as soybeans, cotton, corn, wheat, palm oil, etc. fell sharply. North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Asia and other places reduced the impact of planting area of ​​related products, and the demand for international potash fertilizer was actually decreased. Among them, China's potassium fertilizer consumption in the first quarter has been reduced by 30% year-on-year. Brazil, India, the United States and other countries have reduced their potassium fertilizer use by 20%, 35% and 17% respectively. The amount of potash fertilizer in other countries has also been reduced to varying degrees, eventually leading to international potash stocks. Rapid increase to the current more than 20 million tons.
These have already caused headaches for potash giants, but the recent outbreak of pandemic H1N1 flu has made potash prices bullish. On April 29, some farmers in the United States have announced that they will postpone corn sowing. If the epidemic can not be effectively controlled in the later period, the spread will be widened, and the food prices that have just been stabilized will face downward pressure once again, dragging down the price of chemical fertilizers including potassium fertilizers.
Finally, domestic potash fertilizer is more than self-sufficient. On the one hand, the “high price†potash fertilizer in the past two years has hurt the feelings of Chinese farmers and the enthusiasm of the application of potash fertilizer. As a result, from the second half of 2007, the domestic potash fertilizer consumption did not increase, but dropped to about 7 million tons in 2008. The surplus potassium fertilizer was 6.8 million tons, which exceeded the annual import of potash fertilizer. On the other hand, with the completion and production of the one-million-ton potash fertilizer bases such as salt lake potash fertilizer and Xinjiang Lop Nur, China’s potash fertilizer production capacity and production are increasing, and this year it is expected to produce more than 4 million tons of potash fertilizer. . If calculated on the basis of 7 million tons of consumption last year, even if China does not import potash fertilizer this year, it will be able to ensure domestic demand and have a slight surplus. As China is the world's largest importer of potash fertilizer, it imports 7 million to 9 million tons of potash every year. China's potash fertilizer imports have suddenly declined or even do not import, implying that there are at least 7 million tons of potash fertilizer in the world that needs to find new buyers and sellers. The confidence will be a heavy blow.
The industry believes that the sudden outbreak of the H1N1 flu epidemic is likely to be the trigger for the drop in potash prices. If potassium fertilizer prices at home and abroad that are pushed up and reluctantly maintained by monopolistic institutions and international speculators fall, the decline may be deeper and the lethality will be greater. After the drop in potash prices, the first to be hit will be the compound fertilizer market. However, if the price of compound fertilizer falls, it will cause the price of fertilizer such as urea and ammonium phosphate to move downwards, making it difficult for the fertilizer market to prosper during the busy season. To this end, relevant experts reminded relevant companies and distributors that this should be fully prepared, especially for companies and distributors with higher fertilizer inventory, as early as possible, to reduce inventory as soon as possible to avoid the decline in fertilizer prices caused by the enterprise Big loss.
According to the data provided by IFA, in recent years, the world's new potash fertilizer production capacity will exceed 22%. In 2012, global potash fertilizer production will reach 50.3 million tons, and the actual demand at that time will be only 36.6 million tons, with a surplus of more than 13 million tons. This shows that the current global surplus of potassium fertilizer has only just begun. With the release of new production capacity, the pressure of excess potassium fertilizer will increase. The possibility of increasing the price of whole fertilizer by pulling up the price of potash fertilizer will become less and less, and the rational return of potash fertilizer price will lead to the downward movement of the entire price of fertilizer. Sex will continue to increase.
A type H1N1 flu outbreak can be a potent price drop for potash fertilizers
The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Minmetals Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, and the Potassium Salt Branch of the China National Minerals Industry Association and other departments have unanimously stated in an interview recently: The Chinese people are unable to withstand the current high-priced potash fertilizer. This year's potash fertilizer imports will not exceed last year. China Even the international potash price lacks upward momentum. In early April, during the visit to China by Mr. Michel, Executive Secretary of the International Fertilizer Industry Association’s (IFA) Production and International Trade Committee, he also said that with full understanding of China’s potash fertilizer production, supply, inventory, and prices of agricultural products, the current oil Compared with the prices of natural gas and agricultural products, the price of potash fertilizer is indeed high, and the upward momentum is not enough.