The State Council executive meeting has researched and deployed policies to encourage the “renewal of old cars†policy, and decided to adopt a financial subsidy on the basis of the existing retirement and replacement subsidy policy for old cars. This year, the central government increased the retirement subsidies for old cars from 1 billion to 5 billion yuan. According to reports, after the "automobiles went to the countryside" in March and the "Ministry of Finance increased support for retirement subsidies for old cars" in March, the government departments again took actions to "protect and escort" commercial vehicle sales. The big is far more than passenger cars.
1. Opportunity: “new trade-in†promotes sales of commercial vehicles
The "renewal trade-in" policy will expand the subsidy scope and increase the subsidy on the basis of the existing retirement and replacement subsidy policies for old cars, and will increase the retirement subsidies for old cars from 1 billion yuan to 5 billion yuan, and the scope of subsidies will be extended to Commercial vehicle industry. For medium-, light-, micro-duty trucks and some medium-sized passenger vehicles that meet certain service life requirements, those that prematurely scrapped and redeployed new cars, or those that failed to meet the national I standards for the discharge of waste pollutants in advance and those that did not meet the requirements III. Standard diesel vehicles, and the users of the new cars, shall in principle be subsidized at a rate not higher than the single vehicle purchase tax for the same type of vehicle. At this time, the "new trade for old" new policy is launched. What do you mean? It is understood that after the introduction of a series of favorable policies such as “half the purchase tax†for the passenger vehicle market at the beginning of this year, the passenger car market showed a strong growth trend. However, in stark contrast to the passenger car market, the production and sales of commercial vehicles fell by 1.46% and 3.86% year-on-year, which is a problem that needs to be resolved in order to smoothly achieve the goal of more than 10 million cars being produced and sold this year. The introduction of the “new for trade†policy is like a timely rain. It is not difficult to see that the country hopes to further expand consumer demand, promote energy saving and emission reduction, and reduce the environmental pollution vision through the “new-for-new†approach. Some market analysts pointed out that compared with previous policies, the scope of “renewal of trade†has expanded both in terms of scope and the amount of subsidies, which is conducive to a further overall recovery of the domestic auto market. Since some commercial vehicles are entering the “new-for-new†range for the first time, it is obvious that the country intends to stimulate the development of commercial vehicles through the trade-in measures. Because commercial vehicles are high value-added vehicles, they are most affected by the financial crisis.
2. Reaction: Dealers expressed cautious optimism
The general view of distributors is that the policy of “renewal of trade†is a very good news for consumers who are preparing to change cars. For the part of commercial vehicle owners who can trade for change, the role of “renewal trade†policy is not very big.
“Old-for-new†must first have old cars to enjoy the relevant subsidies, and the state hopes to drive the development of related cars through such measures. Since commercial vehicles are mainly investment products, the purchaser decides whether to scrap ahead of time and redeem a new car with a direct link to the “returnâ€. The proportion of redemption subsidies is determined to be no more than the purchase tax for bicycles of the same model. Take a light vehicle with a price of 100,000 yuan as an example. The subsidy is about 10,000 yuan, and the redemption party needs to pay 90,000 yuan for this, so he will surely Considering inputs and benefits in full, it will not be rushed out just because there is a “moderate†subsidy. After all, when the economy is in a downturn, everyone is extremely cautious about spending.
Dalian Liyang Automobile Sales Department told reporters early in the car, in the previous car to the countryside, the light truck and the card because it involves a redemption, it is not obvious that the "car to the countryside" policy east. The National Automobile “renewal†policy is being implemented at the pilot stage. I believe this positive news will have a certain role in promoting the commercial vehicle market. In Qingling, small liberation and other distribution stores, related personnel also said that this policy is a good news. Since the subsidy models are mostly used in commercial operations, the purpose of this part of consumer demand is very clear. Although it is difficult to stimulate those consumers who do not intend to change cars to replace existing vehicles, there is a demand for them. Those who are still hesitant to make a purchase will play a significant role in promoting.
Industry experts pointed out that since the amount of subsidy is not yet clear, it is difficult to judge how big the "new trade-in" can be for the market. Therefore, we must implement the policy as soon as possible in order to play a certain practical role in the market.
3. Forecast: Competition or Intensification of Low-end Commercial Vehicles
Car analyst Jia Xinguang said that the previous government’s efforts in the retirement policy of old cars were not big enough. At present, the commercial vehicle fleet in China is about 26 million vehicles, and the annual scrap amount is 300,000-500,000, which is calculated annually. The scrap rate is only about 2%. If this is extrapolated, there are about 5 million "yellow cars" produced at the end of the last century and the beginning of this century. Therefore, increasing the intensity of scrapping has a positive effect on energy saving and environmental protection, driving safety, and transportation efficiency. "The key to promoting the development of the commercial vehicle market is not only the preferential policy on sales prices and the improvement of the transportation environment, but also the increased enforcement of the retirement policy. Therefore, implementation details are very important," Jia Xinguang pointed out.
Industry experts pointed out that after the “half-preferential purchase tax for passenger cars under 1.6 liters†and “automobiles and motorcycles went to the countrysideâ€, the state’s rescue operation for the auto market has been further expanded, and the commercial vehicle market, which had been out of favor with the previous one, is After struggling for the first four months of this year, it finally ushered in a "timely rain" with financial subsidies. For this measure, the crowded car companies are eagerly looking forward to the relevant subsidies details as soon as possible, at that time, the stimulating effect on the commercial vehicle market will be truly revealed.
According to industry insiders, Dalian-based enterprises with an export-oriented economy will recover as the export industry recovers. As a result, sales of commercial vehicles downstream of the industry will also recover. Experts pointed out that for some time in the future, the market's demand for commercial vehicles will be in the range of 50,000 to 80,000 trucks. Although high-end trucks are also in demand, they are mainly purchased by large logistics companies. Therefore, in the near future, low-end commercial vehicles will compete for the "new trade" cake.
View related topics: "new trade-in" stimulates the development of commercial vehicle market