The subsidy of the “new trade for old†policy of this car has been greatly increased, undoubtedly a positive effect on the commercial vehicle market. On the 20th, the Shenwan Delivery Equipment Index ranked the 4th in the list, and constituent stocks such as Zhongjinbei Automobile, Dongfeng Automobile and Jianghuai Automobile achieved good gains.
Increased subsidy policy
The total scale of this policy subsidy has increased significantly, exceeding market expectations. The “Automobile Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan†announced in March 2009 increased the total amount of subsidies for the retirement of old cars in 2009 from 600 million yuan in 2008 to 1 billion yuan. This subsidy policy will once again substantially increase the subsidy scale to 50 100 million yuan, the number of subsidized vehicles will increase significantly.
At the same time, subsidies have increased dramatically. In April 22, 2009, the "Subsidy Standard for Old Type Vehicles" issued by the Ministry of Finance, retired light passengers, passengers, heavy trucks and other models can only get fixed subsidies ranging from 5,000 to 15,000 yuan. According to this subsidy policy, if a new vehicle is replaced at the same time as the old model is scrapped, an average subsidy of 20,000 yuan (10% of vehicle price) will be obtained, which will significantly benefit the new car market for commercial vehicles.
In addition, the number of beneficiaries and beneficiaries are significantly expanded. The previous car-to-country policy was only aimed at peasants buying cars and enjoying relevant subsidies. This policy applies to urban and urban customers and corporate customers and will have a positive impact on the sales of commercial vehicle products. In terms of models, the models that enjoy end-of-life subsidies and car price subsidies in the auto-to-country policy are confined to light-duty trucks, and the subsidy models for this policy cover almost all models including medium- and heavy-duty trucks, light trucks, micro cards, large and medium passengers, and light passengers. All commercial vehicle models within.
This policy is another favorable policy for the commercial vehicle sub-industry after “reducing the purchase tax for passenger vehicles with a displacement of 1.6 liters or lessâ€. From January to April 2009, the passenger car market recovered significantly, but the commercial vehicle market has been relatively sluggish. This policy is conducive to the increase in the scrapping and redemption of commercial vehicles.
It is expected that with the further refinement of the “renewable subsidies for old cars†standard, the overall sales volume of commercial vehicles is expected to recover sharply in the second half of the year, and the sales growth of the entire vehicle is expected to exceed 10%.
Lightweight trucks benefit most
From the perspective of specific models, most analysts believe that light trucks and heavy trucks benefit from the "new trade" subsidy policy, and generally favor Weichai Power, Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck, Foton Motor, Jiangling Motors, Jianghuai Automobile, Jinlong Automobile, etc. Commercial vehicle company.
Double benefits of "cars to the countryside" and "replacement of old" light trucks will undoubtedly benefit the most. GF Securities analyst pointed out that the trade-in policy will supplement the light truck policy in the “car to the countrysideâ€. The previous light truck policies were mainly agricultural vehicle swaps. Now the promotion to old product upgrades will further promote the upgrade of light-card consumption and promote the product structure upgrade of the industry more effectively. High-end products in the light-card industry will benefit even more.
At the same time, the new exchange standard also made the heavy truck products significantly better. CITIC Securities analysts pointed out that the use of heavy trucks is relatively short (usually 4-6 years), and the proportion of normal scrapped vehicles is high each year. There are a large number of low-emissions or near-end-of-life vehicles in heavy trucks. At the same time, the amount of bicycle subsidy for heavy trucks is relatively high, and it is expected to increase from 5,000 yuan in the original policy to 20,000 yuan, which will help stimulate the release of demand. In addition, the recovery of the logistics and transportation market and the construction of the project will also provide the basis for the release of demand for heavy trucks. Tianxiang analysts pointed out that in the subdivision models, the heavy truck industry is relatively lack of obvious policy support, and it is expected that there will be further support plans for the heavy truck industry.
However, Guotai Junan believes that the effectiveness of this policy remains to be seen. Analysts pointed out that taking a light vehicle with a price of 100,000 yuan as an example, the subsidy will be around 10,000 yuan, and the redemption party will also need to pay 90,000 yuan for this purpose. It will definitely consider input and income, not just because of the meagerness. "The subsidies have been rushed. In addition, CIC Securities reminds that “replacement of old for new†is in essence an early release of demand for future updates, which may put pressure on the growth in demand in the coming year.