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1. The electrolytic aluminum surface industry faces overall losses, and the development prospects are not optimistic.
According to the statistics of 86 independent electrolytic aluminum enterprises in China, the profit after the first half of this year was only 221 million yuan, a decrease of 72.56% compared with the same period of last year. 54 enterprises in 86 enterprises suffered losses, with a loss of 63%. The loss amounted to 526 million yuan. Even the profits of electrolytic aluminum companies that have not suffered losses have fallen sharply, and many companies are already on the verge of losses. Some large companies that made profits last year also experienced sharp declines in profits and losses this year. The listed company Lanzhou Aluminum's annual report for the first half of the year showed that the company's profit fell sharply by 41.55% year-on-year, while Henan Jiaozuo Wanfang lost 36 million yuan.
According to an industry insider, there are even some companies that avoid losses for various reasons, and there are different degrees of potential losses. If the potential loss factor is considered, it is expected that the loss of the electrolytic aluminum industry will reach more than 85%. The serious losses and potential losses of electrolytic aluminum enterprises have lasted for more than a year. The situation faced by electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the second half of this year will undoubtedly be more severe.
Second, industrial policy and import and export trade problems are serious
At present, the key to the loss of China's electrolytic aluminum industry is the excessive alumina price. According to the calculation of one ton of electrolytic aluminum produced by two tons of alumina, since the cost of importing alumina from domestic aluminum plants is significantly higher than that of other major importing countries, the profits of China's aluminum smelting industry are transferred to the alumina industry, and this is very A large part was obtained by foreign alumina manufacturers. In 2004, China imported a total of nearly 7 million tons of alumina, an average of more than 120 US dollars per ton than the United States and Canada, making the company increase the cost of 840 million US dollars.
UK Commodity Research Institute (CRU) alumina price statistics (USD/ton)
2003, 2004, 2005
The first quarter of the year, the second quarter, the third quarter, the fourth quarter, the first quarter, the second quarter
Average spot price* 290 452 396 330 347 395 399
China's average import price 243 345 332 338 336 360 349
US import price 169 199 216 208 210 228 245
Sino-US spread 74 146 116 130 126 132 104
Canadian import price 173 189 200 205 237 217 222
Medium plus spread 70 156 132 133 99 143 127
CRU weighted average 163 192 208 201 215 217
Note: * is the average price of FOB in Australia and the Caribbean; the importing country is Australia, and the import price is CIF. &;
The alumina portion of the cost of electrolytic aluminum has changed from one-third in 2003 to about half today. The reason for the high alumina is that the domestic alumina supply is in short supply. On the other hand, the alumina import and export trade policy is not conducive to the development of the electrolytic aluminum industry.
There are two problems in China's aluminum industry import and export trade policy: First, the import tariff of alumina is unreasonable, and second, the drawbacks of the important industrial product import registration system for alumina imports are higher than the current import tariff rate of alumina in China. %, while other non-ferrous metal minerals such as copper concentrate, lead concentrate, zinc concentrate and other import tariff rates are zero. China is also a major importer of alumina, and half of the annual needs are imported. In the first half of this year, China imported 3.67 million tons of alumina, an increase of 28.7% over the same period last year.
The world's other major aluminum producing countries have no import tariffs on alumina, encourage the import of raw materials, and use foreign resources to develop their own heavy industries. This is the consensus of all industrial countries around the world. The Russian government announced on August 4 that it decided to extend the period of zero tariffs on alumina imports from August 29 this year. Especially for China, the conditions of bauxite resources are not very good, the reserves are small, the production cost of alumina is high, and the use of low-cost bauxite and alumina resources abroad should be encouraged. However, the current excessively high import tariff rate for alumina is obviously unreasonable under the current situation of tight alumina resources and aggravated resource crisis.
The import registration system for important industrial products for alumina imports has many drawbacks. The main purpose of the national implementation of this system in 2001 was to limit the excessive impact of alumina on the domestic market, which has now lost its foundation.
First, the implementation of the system violates the principle of free trade and fairness. More than 80% of the electrolytic aluminum enterprises cannot obtain the certificate of re-work and lose the right to choose suppliers and supply conditions. It also contradicts the WTO trade transparency system and the principle of predictability.
Second, it is not conducive to the establishment of long-term and stable cooperative relations between the supply and demand sides of alumina through market means, and the wrong signal is conveyed to the market. Due to the inability to clearly predict the market demand, foreign alumina producers will slow down the expansion of the new construction plan, and the alumina tension will continue for a longer period of time. In the case that the domestic imports are blocked in the alumina import trade and the alumina industry is profitable, it may lead to The new alumina investment is hot.
Third, the problem of speculating in heavy work permits is serious, which has caused social corruption.
Third, correctly see China's electrolytic aluminum industry
1. The growth of market demand will still be the basic factor determining the development of electrolytic aluminum in China. The historical experience of developed countries shows that the process of industrialization and modernization of a country is also a process of accelerating the consumption of energy and raw materials. The accumulation of social wealth and economic development are based on the consumption of a large number of raw materials such as steel, copper, aluminum and cement. In 2003, China's per capita GDP reached 1,000 US dollars. As far as the overall level is concerned, it entered a period of rapid development and faced an extremely important period of strategic opportunities. During this period, the growth rate of aluminum consumption and demand will inevitably exceed the GDP growth rate, which is a historical law of the development of an industrialized country.
In China, the main consumer sectors of aluminum are in the growth stage for a long time, such as the automotive industry, construction and real estate, power industry, machinery industry, transportation industry, packaging industry and so on. At the same time, as China is gradually becoming the center of global manufacturing, and a large amount of aluminum materials are consumed in various exported parts and finished products, the demand for aluminum has further increased. It is predicted that the demand for aluminum in China will reach 10.5 million tons in 2010. There is a huge market space in the next 15 years. This has become the biggest driving force for attracting industrial investment and stimulating industrial development, and will also create more market opportunities.
2. The development of electrolytic aluminum is an insurmountable stage of the rapid growth period in China's industrialization process.
In the process of national industrialization, the application amount of metal materials such as aluminum exhibits S-type changes, and will experience different historical stages such as primary application, rapid growth, and moderate growth. Especially for electrolytic aluminum, the moderate development in a period of time is in line with the objective law of industrial development.
Aluminum is a resource-oriented industry, but as technological advancement and industrial development are gradually evolving into market-oriented industries, aluminum has become a complex and complete from resource exploration, mining, smelting, processing, material development and product application. Industrial chain, industrial cluster, and industrial division of labor are more detailed. The industrial layout and resource allocation continue to undergo reasonable changes. The form of industrial organization is developing from resource development to comprehensive development. Multinational corporations are getting more returns from the upstream and downstream integration system. Therefore, for China's electrolytic aluminum industry, becoming the largest producer of production is only the first step to complete this value chain system, regardless of resource development and control methods, product variety development and process technology advancement, or from the level of transnational operations, enterprises Organizational form, market control, influence, market value-added service capabilities, China's electrolytic aluminum industry has a long way to go, industrial upgrading has a long way to go.
3. The overall benefits of developing electrolytic aluminum outweigh the disadvantages.
It can not be denied that electrolytic aluminum production has high energy consumption, certain pollution, and strong resource dependence. However, the development of the industry should also be viewed dialectically. As a metal structural material and functional material with excellent performance, aluminum has the characteristics of energy saving, energy storage, weight reduction and easy recycling. Its wide application is an important symbol of social progress and economic development. The contribution of aluminum in building a resource-conserving and sustainable society is well established.
In the long life cycle of aluminum materials, its contribution to human environmental quality and quality of life is far greater than the negative impact of its one-time production process. At the same time, the improvement of the energy utilization efficiency of the entire society by the electrolytic aluminum industry is indispensable for the safe operation of the power grid and for each user's economic electricity. Of course, the contribution of the aluminum industry to regional economic development is also evident. Therefore, on a global scale, the aluminum industry is a good industry and an industry that can continuously improve our quality of life and environmental quality.
4. Competition and restructuring cannot be avoided.
Although the electrolytic aluminum industry does have a situation in which capacity growth is too fast and capacity is idle, it is still a non-market factor in terms of resource possession, energy supply, project approval, and trade policy. Coupled with China's vast territory, the resource conditions are extremely different, the development is extremely uneven, and the role of market allocation of resources has not been fully utilized. Industrial development has not really entered an excessive period of competition, and the space for industrial competition is still large.
With the establishment and improvement of the market economic system, with the diversification of the investment sectors of the aluminum industry and the formation of the capital market, the original market structure will inevitably have an impact. This kind of shock-induced competition will bring the aluminum industry into a new round of reshuffle. Competition and shuffling are impossible in the market shortage situation. Only moderate excesses and imbalances can stimulate industrial changes and promote the efficient flow of resources. This is good for industrial development.
5. Establish a global business philosophy.
The aluminum products have strong liquidity, and the aluminum market has a high degree of integration at home and abroad. The international influence of China's aluminum industry is also increasing. Any aluminum product, its production and circulation have a close international background. In terms of resource development, it is necessary to establish a global strategy for China's aluminum resources and make full use of both resources; in the market development, we must carefully consider export-oriented strategies, select favorable products and target favorable regional markets, and never give up global industrial division of labor. And the opportunities brought about by the adjustment of industrial layout. At the same time, in the evaluation of project competitiveness, we must fully consider the advantages and disadvantages of global market integration and transnational business environment, and carefully select competition and cooperation strategies in business management.
Fourth, the development direction and ideas of China's electrolytic aluminum industry
(1) Deepen reform, improve the system, and highlight the role of the market in allocating resources
In China's electrolytic aluminum industry, we must cultivate market players by deepening institutional reforms. Encourage investment diversification and support private enterprises, listed companies, and foreign-funded enterprises to participate in the competition of alumina and electrolytic aluminum industries. Promote industrial restructuring with capital flows and market competition to reduce financial risks. And through capital integration, accelerate the restructuring of state-owned enterprises and improve their ability to innovate. Diversified investment and asset restructuring will effectively solve the government's pressure and responsibility in all aspects of electrolytic aluminum, give full play to the basic role of market allocation of resources, and improve the efficiency of industrial capital. It is recommended that the current approval system for new electrolytic aluminum production capacity projects be revised to the new electrolytic aluminum project approval system. And as soon as possible, the introduction of scientific evaluation methods and access systems for electrolytic aluminum projects, and the establishment of open and fair project evaluation procedures and approval procedures.
(II) Brainstorming and formulating industrial policies and development plans for aluminum industry
The industrial policy of the aluminum industry is a programmatic document guiding the development of the aluminum industry. It is a complex systematic project. It should solicit opinions extensively, conduct in-depth demonstrations, and fully coordinate interest disputes and policy differences. Industrial policies include: industrial development guiding ideology, goals, market access, structural adjustment, technology policy, industrial layout, import and export policy, resource development strategy, product development focus, industrial organization development direction, sustainable development.
The formulation of the industrial policy and industrial planning of the aluminum industry should refer to previous experiences and lessons, and pay attention to the six important principles:
1. Forward-looking principle: It is necessary to focus on the strategy and positioning of the aluminum industry during the period of China's industrialization and comprehensive construction of a well-off stage. It should not be constrained in the immediate or near-term, and must have long-term vision and long-term orientation.
2. The principle of globalization: we must have an international vision and fully consider two resources and two markets.
3. The principle of differentiation: It is necessary to consider the differences in external conditions between different places and different enterprises, and to fully recognize the differentiation strategy while emphasizing unity.
4. Guiding Principles: It is necessary to clearly encourage the industry and enterprises to do what they are, and to restrict or restrict what to do. The content of these two aspects is as small as possible, and stricter, and more is guidance. Avoid situations where the management has been too fine, too dead, and not well managed.
5. The principle of competitiveness and fairness: There must be concrete measures to promote enterprise reform and industrial restructuring, and encourage competition and survival of the fittest under the premise of serious laws, and accelerate this process. Policies should consider fair competition under market conditions, not only to protect the rights and interests of vested interests, but also to consider and respect the rights and interests of investors.
6, the principle of operability: to be suitable for China's national conditions, easy to operate. Once the policy is determined, it should not be easily changed to maintain the stability of the industry and the market and prevent major ups and downs.
(3) Serious law and discipline, improving macro-control measures, and gradually changing industry management for social management
The laws and regulations that have already been issued must be serious, and law enforcement should be strengthened to maintain market rules and industry economic order and fair competition. The departments of environmental protection, industry and commerce, quality inspection, taxation, land, mineral resources, customs supervision and so on should truly assume the functions of social management. The government will regulate the economic development of the industry through fiscal and taxation and monetary policy. The government will gradually return the decisions made by the financial and asset managers to them. It is imperative to insist on stopping the environmental protection of the electrolytic aluminum enterprises from failing to meet the standards, to stop the over-harvesting of bauxite and not to rehabilitate, and to intervene in the over-exploitation of bauxite.
(4) Preventing monopoly and moderate competition, and relying on market mechanisms to improve industrial concentration and intensification
1. Alumina production investment should allow and guide the formation of a diversified pattern, and encourage innovation systems and mechanisms to achieve common development.
2. The electricity price policy of the electrolytic aluminum industry should be fair and reasonable, and guide various forms of aluminum-electricity joint ventures or establish a new type of aluminum-electricity relationship.
3. It is necessary to support certain aluminum industry groups established by means of market mechanism and means and by means of mergers and acquisitions, to promote enterprise restructuring and industrial upgrading with moderate competition.
4. Expand the use of foreign capital to participate in the restructuring and restructuring of electrolytic aluminum enterprises.
(V) Strengthening the construction of industry organizations, cultivating intermediary service organizations and improving the service system of the aluminum industry market
China's electrolytic aluminum industry calls for the establishment of a strong professional industry organization, which needs to establish and improve the aluminum industry market service system. The growth of professional, professional, independent and objective market service institutions is also a sign that the aluminum industry is moving towards rationality and maturity.
1. Integrate internal and external scientific and technological resources, establish a public-oriented, public-to-civilian-oriented aluminum industry technology development center and product research and development center, and establish a special fund for scientific and technological progress and innovation in the aluminum industry with government support. Provide effective support for industrial upgrading and technological progress. Focus on supporting major basic research projects and energy conservation, environmental protection, new materials, equipment localization and scientific research projects that have an important impact on the overall situation.
2. Organize experts to prepare the "China Aluminum Industry Development Guide" to guide enterprises to carry out technological progress, product development, safety production, industrial hygiene, environmental protection, and management innovation.
3. Establish an energy conservation and environmental protection promotion organization for the aluminum industry, making it an independent energy conservation and environmental protection information exchange center, project promotion center, and project evaluation center in the aluminum industry.
4. Establish corresponding institutions, organize the promotion and application of aluminum products, increase the publicity and publicity of the public, establish a good public image of the aluminum industry and aluminum products and create a good application environment, and promote the government to introduce various kinds of products beneficial to aluminum applications. Standards and related regulations.
5. Improve the service system of the aluminum industry market, including information services, industrial research consulting, investment and financing services, certification services, warehousing services, and professional talent training services. In particular, it is necessary to establish an aluminum industry information center, establish an online business and information platform for the aluminum industry, and establish an industry media representing the industry image.
6. Establish an industry early warning system, timely grasp the domestic and international market dynamics, the competitive situation, inform the enterprise, and report to the government.
7. Strengthen the organization of the aluminum industry, attract high-quality industrial talents and workers, have the knowledge structure, work ability and innovative ideas for the aluminum industry, and establish a new system for the survival, development and service of the aluminum industry organization.
(6) Adjusting the import and export trade policy of alumina
1. Release the general trade of alumina
Maximizing the use of low-cost alumina resources abroad should be a long-term strategy. The implementation of free trade in alumina is an important prerequisite for the implementation of this strategy, which is conducive to enhancing the openness, predictability and transparency of the market, and is conducive to the forward-looking, strategic and multi-channel development of overseas resources. It is also conducive to breaking the market monopoly. Effectively avoid the situation that a large number of aluminum ingots are exported and re-imported.
2, should consider reducing or canceling the import tariff of alumina
After the country has abolished the policy of export tax rebate and alumina processing trade for electrolytic aluminum, we recommend to consider further reducing or eliminating the import tariff on alumina. Encouraging the import of alumina should become an important industrial policy, which will help to improve the competitiveness of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry, help to curb the excessive investment of alumina, and facilitate the rational development and utilization of domestic bauxite resources.
(VII) Innovative alumina import procurement coordination mechanism, centralized bidding for the purchase of foreign alumina
In the implementation of the "going out" strategy and expanding the use of overseas alumina resources, it is necessary to invest in the construction of bauxite and alumina plants overseas and increase the control of resources. However, due to the wide range of uncertainties and factors involved in overseas resource development and direct investment, the timeliness of achieving the goal is not strong.
It is necessary to insist on walking on two legs, and investing both overseas and centralized procurement. At present, it is imperative to master the initiative of overseas alumina import trade and change the current passive situation. It is necessary to establish a non-profit joint-stock alumina procurement company with a cooperative concept innovation mechanism. It can be represented by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, and the domestic backbone electrolytic aluminum plant will jointly initiate a joint capital injection, with the guarantee of various enterprise assets, government support, high-efficiency financing, and procurement of medium and long-term alumina resources through global bidding.
China's electrolytic aluminum industry problems and development ideas
According to the statistics of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in the first half of 2005, China's aluminum smelting industry (including electrolytic aluminum, alumina and recycled aluminum) realized a profit of 5.851 billion yuan. However, electrolytic aluminum companies and alumina companies are on the top of the ice and fire, and there is a huge contrast in economic efficiency.