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2008 is an extraordinary year. What happened to the domestic commercial vehicle engine market in 2008? What are the reasons? A few days ago, the reporter came to the China Internal Combustion Engine Industry Association to seek answers.
Heavy-duty vehicle engine market is becoming saturated
In 2008, the total number of vehicle diesel engines maintained steady growth. Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first 11 months, China's cumulative production of nearly 1.99 million vehicles diesel engines, an increase of 7.72% over the same period last year.
Heavy-duty commercial vehicles generally use large-displacement diesel engines. No matter whether the market share or the technical level, they have always been the strength of the domestic engine industry. According to statistics, China's major heavy-duty commercial vehicle diesel engine production enterprises, such as Guangxi Yuchai, Weichai, China National Heavy Duty Truck, the cumulative output in the first 11 months compared with the same period last year, have varying degrees of growth, an increase of 4.75%, 24.62 % and 24.33%. However, the year-on-year growth was mainly driven by the prosperous commercial vehicle market in the first half of the year. Since the second half of the year, as the market has become cold, the output of many engine companies has fallen sharply. In October, the output of Guangxi Yuchai, Weichai, and CNHTC decreased by 25.28%, 64.6% and 48.04% respectively. On this basis, the three companies continued to reduce production in November, and the decline rates were 30.83%, 50.64%, and 52.62%, respectively, and the decline rates were both above 50%. The trend of the market “high before and after low†is very clear.
“I personally believe that the current market is bleak, mainly due to three reasons.†Wei Anli, deputy secretary-general of the China Internal Combustion Engine Industry Association, told reporters.
The financial crisis that has swept the world has been raging and has caused a certain impact on the Chinese auto market. Commercial vehicles have naturally not been spared. "Although the financial crisis is one of the unfavorable factors, its impact is limited and it cannot simply attribute the current market downturn to the financial crisis." Wei Anli said.
On July 1 of this year, China's full implementation of the National III emission standards has had a certain impact on the market distribution of heavy-duty commercial vehicles that are “high before and after lowâ€. Some of the demand was released ahead of schedule, which is one of the reasons for the rapid decline in the market in recent months.
Wei Anli believes that the current weakness in the domestic market is mainly due to the gradual saturation of the heavy commercial vehicle market. "From 2005 to 2007, China's heavy-duty commercial vehicles continued to grow rapidly for three years. Although it is inextricably linked with the rapid development of the national economy, due to the high-speed launches in the past three years, the domestic heavy-duty commercial vehicle market has become saturated," he said.
On the technical level, the State III emission standards have been fully implemented and announced that China's diesel engine industry has entered a new stage of technological upgrading.
In 2008, the diesel engine industry was very lively, and the "typical" technical route represented by high-pressure common rail and other "atypical" technical routes were the focus topics in the industry. “Through nearly a year of discussion, consensus has generally been reached in the industry and there is a relatively clear idea. As long as the national III emission standards can be met, any technical route can be adopted, including high-pressure common rail systems, electronically controlled EGR plus in-line pumps, and electricity. Control the monomer pump system, etc." Wei Anli said.
The emission standards have been upgraded from State II to State III, which has brought the overall level of domestic large-displacement diesel engines to a higher level. "China's auto internal combustion engine industry is gradually becoming mature." Wei Anli told reporters, "On the one hand, corporate awareness of social responsibility is on the increase, and on the other hand, the level of products has been continuously improved. With the country's vigorous promotion of energy conservation and environmental protection, companies are We have improved our products, including the research of fuel systems, gas distribution mechanisms, combustion organizations, and post-processing technologies.†From a professional perspective, diesel emissions are upgraded from State II to State III, not just one or two The system can be achieved, it must be based on the overall level of the engine to improve. The emergence of multiple country III technical routes reflects the improvement of China's engine industry platform.
â– Light vehicle engine market chaos
In 2008, the development of domestic light vehicle engines was basically stable. However, the statistics of the past two months show that the production output of major domestic light commercial vehicle engine manufacturers is also very obvious. In November, although output of a light-vehicle engine company increased by 5.71% month-on-month, it was down 40.32% year-on-year, and cumulative production in the first 11 months fell by 11.4% year-on-year.
Unlike heavy-duty engines, light-vehicle engines have always been a weakness in the domestic engine industry, and the pattern has been relatively confusing. "This is related to the market position of domestic light commercial vehicles." Wei Anli said.
At present, the development of China's logistics industry is still not perfect and there are many drawbacks. “In foreign countries, the division of labor between light and heavy vehicles is relatively clear. Intercity freight transport is dominated by heavy vehicles, and light vehicles are mainly responsible for urban logistics and distribution. However, at home, it is influenced by factors such as drivers’ individual behavior and inadequate traffic control. This part of the work of light vehicles was largely shared by heavy vehicles,†Wei Anli told reporters. “The chaos in the logistics industry has seriously hampered the development of domestic light vehicles. When companies plan their products, their market goals are not clear, resulting in Related engine R&D positioning is inaccurate."
In 2008, the current state of confusion in the light-vehicle engine market has not changed. The limitations of the light vehicle market make it difficult for the relevant engine suppliers to become bigger and stronger. “At present, the light vehicle engine sector still lacks leading companies with higher design and manufacturing levels and larger production scales. The overall level is relatively low, and companies do not have sufficient capabilities to carry out comprehensive technological transformation,†Wei Anli said.
In the field of large-displacement diesel engines, self-owned brand products take advantage of various aspects to occupy a dominant position in the market, and it is difficult for foreign products to significantly increase market share. However, the domestic industry pattern of light vehicle engines is chaotic and the product level is not high, providing foreign companies with space to enter the Chinese market. In March of this year, Beijing Foton Cummins Engine Co., Ltd. was established, undoubtedly a blockbuster in the field of light vehicle engines. By cooperating with Fukuda, China's largest light-car company, Cummins began to launch a fierce attack on the Chinese light-vehicle engine market. Following the establishment of Deutz FAW (Dalian) Diesel Engine Co., Ltd. in 2007, the establishment of Beijing Foton Cummins Co., Ltd. undoubtedly once again sounded the alarm to independent brand enterprises.
