The guiding ideology for the adjustment and revitalization of the automobile industry from 2009 to 2011 puts forward eight goals for the development of China's auto industry in the next three years and has issued relevant supporting measures.
"After mergers and reorganizations, 23 large-scale automobile enterprise groups with production and sales scale of more than 2 million vehicles, 45 automobile enterprise groups with production and sales scale of more than 1 million vehicles were formed, and the number of automobile enterprise groups with production and sales scale accounting for more than 90% of the market share from the current 14 The number of homes has been reduced to 10. "In the planning rules, it is clearly stated that large-scale auto companies such as FAW, Dongfeng, SAIC and Changan will be encouraged to implement mergers and acquisitions nationwide. Support Beiqi, Guangzhou Automobile, Chery, CNHTC and other automobile companies to implement regional mergers and acquisitions. Supporting key auto parts companies to expand their scale through mergers and acquisitions, and increase the domestic and foreign auto market share. The promulgation of this policy seems to indicate that the merger and reorganization of the domestic car industry for many years will become a reality. 
Business status and restructuring desire
However, many years of follow-up research and analysis on the evolutionary history and status quo of domestic major commercial vehicle companies show that it is still unlikely that domestic commercial vehicle companies will be forced to break the deadlock of restructuring before 2011.
As we all know, in the case of overcapacity, general companies do not want to acquire and merge new businesses or businesses because this does not help change the short-term profitability of the company. Among the major commercial vehicle companies in China, FAW has the longest history of liberation. After years of development, the product structure has been completed. In the short term, there is no attempt to restructure and merge other commercial vehicle companies.
Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle is also the same. After the adjustment of its product structure in recent years, Dongfeng Tianlong and Hercules are currently attacking the heavy truck market. After launching Tianjin Zhongka in April last year, the product line is further improved. More possibilities in the future are to cultivate brands and To promote the market, the possibility of mergers and reorganization of other commercial vehicle companies is minimal.
Although Beiqi Foton claims to be the first domestic sales and sales volume of commercial vehicles, its current major business is the light vehicle segment. Because its heavy and medium commercial vehicle business is not strong, the company and Daimler signed a "Commercial Vehicle Cooperation Agreement" in January this year. The two sides decided to establish a joint venture company in China - Beijing Foton Daimler. Limited company. Therefore, in the short term, I am afraid that there will be no intention to restructure other companies.
In addition, because these three large commercial vehicle companies and SAIC Iveco Hongyan are under the ownership of FAW Group, Dongfeng Company, Beijing Automotive Group, and SAIC Group, respectively, and are the key enterprises mentioned in the “Planning Rulesâ€, they are even less May be merged or reorganized by other companies.
China National Heavy Duty Truck hopes to remain?
The only hope is China Heavy Duty Truck. After the initial success of the restructuring of the Datong gear factory at the end of last year, will the company have further major actions before 2011? In the same manner as when Steyr was introduced 25 years ago, Jinan has once again become the center of commercial vehicles in China, because in the planning rules, China National Heavy Duty Truck was selected as the only national commercial vehicle company for the “national team†and became the government’s key support. Companies that participate in industry restructuring. In 2008, China National Heavy Duty Truck Co., Ltd. successfully developed the EGR engine that meets the national III standard and entered the market. Its production and sales of heavy trucks again ranked first in China, and achieved a sales income of over 50 billion yuan. Moreover, since its listing in Hong Kong, its capital has been operating stably and has relatively abundant funds. Compared with the current situation, it has the most acquisition strength.
Reorganization of Weichai Power?
The detailed rules and regulations stated that Sinotruk, like BAIC, GAC and Chery, encouraged it to implement regional mergers and reorganizations. Looking at the province of Shandong, the closest thing to China National Heavy Duty Truck's business is the Weichai Power, which has been devoting its own efforts in 2006. Both parties were once upstream and downstream companies with a "blood" relationship. China National Heavy Duty Truck is the largest engine user of Weichai Power.
However, after the separation, the two companies formed heavy-duty gold industrial chains ranging from vehicles to engines and transmissions through investments and acquisitions, and they are currently in a courtroom situation.
At the same time, in the past, the restructured and merged companies of Sinotruk have all supported the development of the company's business, or have a strong complementarity, not to save other companies. Therefore, Sinotruk's reorganization of Weichai Power in the short term is only a fantasy.
Reorganization in the bus?
China National Heavy Duty Truck's "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" aims to strive to reach a production and sales scale of 250,000 units in 2015, with sales revenue exceeding 100 billion yuan, and achieving the internationalization of products, markets, capital, mechanisms, and brands. Obviously, if China National Heavy Duty Truck produces heavy trucks, the final target may be 156 thousand vehicles. After all, the domestic heavy truck market has limited capacity. Therefore, to reach the goal of 250,000 vehicles, China National Heavy Duty Truck can only enter the vacant areas, such as passenger cars.
As a result, Zhongtong Bus, which is located in Liaocheng, Shandong Province, has gradually surfaced. Zhongtong is affiliated to the Shandong Communications Industry Group Corporation. Its actual controllers with Sinotruk are Shandong Provincial SASAC, and Shandong Province has also indicated that it wants to integrate the resources of the province, and proposed to strive to integrate 10 large-scale enterprises to be among the country. Forefront, mainly related to the steel, petrochemical, commercial and automotive industries.
However, it is highly probable that Sinotrans will be able to carry out mid- and long-term plans for Sinotruk. In the short term, it is unlikely before 2011 at least. There are two main reasons for this: First, heavy-duty trucks have just restructured their "big gears." After accepting the "big gears," although they will benefit in the long-term, they will exert greater pressure on the flow of funds in the short-term. Second, due to the current market environment, because the “Automobile Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan†mainly focuses on passenger vehicles and light vehicles, while large commercial vehicles (heavy, medium-sized trucks, and large and medium-sized passenger vehicles) are missing in the planning rules, and there is no Relevant policies spurred on, resulting in a sustained downturn in the past nine months. Therefore, in this market environment, at least in the short term, China National Heavy Duty Truck will not plan nor be able to restructure the bus.